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The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a 0-0 draw, winter of 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to symbolize the home team's momentous achievement.

Having beaten three home nations, New Zealand had finally been halted in a Test.

The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but clear signs that success might be imminent.

A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Three years further on, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, yes, you know the rest.

Modern Encounters

Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this is another level. This is 32 games across 120 years. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Team News

In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to eight points, five points and eight points in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Via their excellence, physical dominance, their chicanery, they secure victory.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that supporters maintained for Scottish success is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.

Missing Players

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was a significant setback.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and if available then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.

In an era when most props are replaced early in matches, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.

Squad Depth

They're without Huw Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with his club. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. While competent, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Strategic Decisions

Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some curious. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge did the trick.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

Statistical Analysis

For all that their blasts at the end, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. Across international matches recently, they've accumulated scores in the first half and fewer after halftime.

Strong opening performances, 48 in the second, moderate third quarters and solid finishes. They start aggressively.

What Scotland Needs

Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, victory seemed assured. Scotland recovered majestically to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - and keep it there.

Over the last decade, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have required a points average in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only occasionally against New Zealand.

Final Analysis

Perfect execution is required for Scotland. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. Disciplinary issues? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? The game is lost.

With perfect execution? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Fantasy rugby, maybe. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.