What Makes This American Government Shutdown Distinct (as well as More Intractable)?
Government closures are a repeat feature of US politics – but the current situation appears particularly intractable due to shifting political forces and deep-seated animosity among the two parties.
Some government services are temporarily suspended, with approximately 750,000 employees are expected to be put on furlough without pay as Republicans and Democrats remain unable to reach consensus regarding budget legislation.
Votes aimed at ending the deadlock have repeatedly failed, and it is hard to see a clear resolution path this time because both parties – as well as the President – perceive advantages in digging in.
These are several key factors that make things feel different currently.
1. For Democrats, it's about Trump – beyond healthcare issues
The Democratic base have insisted for months for their representatives adopt stronger opposition against the Trump administration. Currently the party leadership has a chance to demonstrate their responsiveness.
In March, the Senate's top Democrat was fiercely criticised for helping pass GOP budget legislation and averting a government closure in the spring. This time he's digging in.
This presents an opportunity for the Democratic party to demonstrate their ability to reclaim certain authority from a presidency that has moved aggressively on its agenda.
Opposing the GOP budget proposal carries electoral dangers that the wider public will grow frustrated with prolonged negotiations and impacts accumulate.
The Democrats are leveraging the shutdown fight to highlight concerns about expiring health insurance subsidies and GOP-backed government healthcare cuts affecting low-income populations, which are both unpopular.
They are also trying to curtail the President's use of his executive powers to rescind or withhold money approved by Congress, a practice demonstrated in international assistance and other programmes.
Second, For Republicans, it's an opportunity
The President along with a senior aide have made little secret of the fact that they perceive an opening to advance further reductions to the federal workforce implemented during the current presidential term so far.
The President himself said last week that the shutdown provided him with an "unprecedented opportunity", adding he intended to reduce funding for "Democrat agencies".
Administration officials stated they would face the "unenviable task" of mass lay-offs to maintain critical federal operations should the impasse persist. An administration spokesperson said this was just "budgetary responsibility".
The scope of the potential lay-offs remains unclear, though administration officials have been consulting with federal budget authorities, or OMB, under the leadership of the key official.
The administration's financial chief has already announced the halting of government financial support for regions governed by the opposition party, such as NYC and Illinois' largest city.
3. There's little trust between both parties
While previous shutdowns have been characterised by extended negotiations among political opponents aimed at restoring federal operations, there appears to be little of the same spirit of collaboration this time.
Instead, there is rancour. Political tensions continued over the weekend, with Republicans and Democrats blaming each other for causing the impasse.
House Speaker a Republican, accused Democrats of not being serious toward resolution, and maintaining positions during discussions "to get political cover".
Meanwhile, the opposition's chief made similar charges against their counterparts, stating how a Republican promise regarding health funding talks after operations resume can not be taken seriously.
The administration leader personally has inflamed the situation through sharing a computer-created controversial depiction of the Senate leader along with another senior in the House, where the representative appears wearing traditional headwear and facial hair.
The representative and other Democrats denounced this as discriminatory, a characterization rejected by the administration's second-in-command.
Fourth, The American Economy faces vulnerability
Experts project about 40% of government employees – over 800,000 workers – to be put on unpaid leave due to the shutdown.
This will reduce consumer expenditure – with broader economic consequences, as environmental permitting, delayed intellectual property processing, payments to contractors and other kinds of government activity connected to commercial interests comes to a halt.
A shutdown also injects new uncertainty into an economy already being roiled from multiple factors including tariffs, previous budget reductions, enforcement actions and technological advancements.
Analysts estimate that it could shave as much as 0.2 percentage points off US economic growth weekly during the closure.
But the economy typically recoups the majority of interrupted operations following resolution, as it would after disruption caused by a natural disaster.
That could be one reason why financial markets has appeared largely unfazed to the ongoing impasse.
Conversely, analysts say that if administration officials implement his threat of mass firings, the damage could be more long-lasting.